Friday, 15 March 2013

Auto Sales - A Sign of Improvement

Construction and industry are what many great nations have been built on. In the midst of the industrial revolution the first automotive was created in 1806, since then they have played a fundamental role in the growth of the global economy.  Now around 62 million cars are sold around the world each year. 

During the credit crisis one of the most affected sectors hit was the automotive industry.  As many see cars as a luxury, new car purchases crashed to the floor.  A number of companies sought emergency loans, most notably GM Motors, Ford and Chrysler receiving a record bailout from the U.S and Canadian government of around $85bn. 

These big three have recovered somewhat since 2008, however global competition has been ever increasing.   Since the start of the Eurozone, Germany its primary contributor has benefited hugely and as one of the major producers of cars they have seen profits rise significantly on the back of a weaker currency. 

Asia follows suit as currency plays a key role in exports.  Japan has historically been a major producer of cars, such as Toyota and Honda.  However, these companies have been hampered over recent years by the strengthening Yen and until recently has had trouble competing with the likes of South Korea and China. Since the introduction of the new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, the Yen has weakened significantly by around 20% and this will inadvertently roll through to company profits. 

The gathering pace in automotive industry should start to show in company profits by April, and a number of funds are well positioned for this.  Aberdeen Japan Growth and JOHCM Japan have a heavy weighting in the automotive sector and would be my pick.

Over the past twelve months, we have seen consecutive rises in auto sales and this is a good sign the global recovery is gathering pace.  This lagging indicator has a powerful message and is one to look out for.

No comments:

Post a Comment